Chinanews, Xiamen, July 26 – The Macro Economic Research Institute of Xiamen University and the Asian Research Center of the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore released the latest assessment report about Chinese macro economy on Wednesday. According to this report, Chinese economy is not overheated. The assessment report is based on the China quarterly macro economic mode (CQMM) jointly developed by the two bodies.

 

Xiamen University and the Singaporean Nanyang Technological University assess the major indexes for Chinese macro economy in the six quarters from the second half of 2007 to 2008. They also assess the current economic situation and predict its future trend of development.

 

By using the CQMM mode, the Chinese and Singaporean research institutes analyze the data published by the National Statistics Bureau on July 19. According to the assessment report, although CPI rose by 4.4% in June and exceeded the 3% alerting line for four consecutive months, such rise was promoted mainly by food prices. The prices of other things than food have remained stable. Raw materials, fuels, and energy have started to fall and there is no substantial rise in the price of fixed assets investment.

 

The central bank's monetary policy has effectively curbed the investment boom. As long as the money supply is effectively controlled, the price hike in food will not pass on to other commodities. Meanwhile, as the prices of meat, poultry and eggs return to normal, CPI is expected to fall by the end of this year or at the beginning of next year.

 

CQMM predicts that China's GDP growth rate will decline to reach 11.43% in the third quarter of this year and further decline to reach 10.56% in the fourth quarter. The GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2007 will reach 11.19%.